Information comes from the network After 2018, "crash ten countries", half collapsed, half struggled! "Crashing the Five Kingdoms": Venezuela, Italy, Turkey, Argentina, Brazil "Crisis Five": India, Russia, South Africa, Indonesia, Vietnam In 2019, the largest foreign exchange market collapsed in the past ten years, and foreign traders paid attention! On January 3, the foreign exchange market staged a big drama in which the yen exchange rate soared and other currencies shattered. On January 3, the Australian dollar suffered a sharp sell-off. The Australian dollar fell more than 4% against the US dollar, at least the biggest decline since June 2016, hitting a 10-year low of 1776. On January 3, the pound plunged to its lowest level since April 2017, hitting a low of $1.2409 against the dollar and falling to a 16-month low of 0.9102 against the euro; On January 3, the Turkish lira suddenly fell about 4% in short-term, refreshing the low since November 2018. The yen-dollar exchange rate rose more than 4% in a single day. Since December last year, the yen has appreciated by nearly 6% against the US dollar in one month. For the market outlook, analysts are generally optimistic about the short-term appreciation of the yen. Liu Jie, head of China's macro strategy at Standard Chartered China, said that the exchange rate of the renminbi against the US dollar may rise to 6.65 before the end of 2019, and the volatility of the renminbi against the US dollar may further expand. Please pay attention to exchange rate risk and collection of foreign exchange! Australian dollar Australian dollar (0.7116, 0.0111, 1.58%) / US dollar: neutral, wide range within the range UOB analysts said that in early trading, the Australian dollar collapsed and the exchange rate hit a low of 0.6715, although the exchange rate has rebounded to around 0.6940. The exchange rate trend is extremely volatile. It is expected that the probability of further falling to 0.6715 is not very high. However, further rebound will also suffer strong resistance. The exchange rate has important resistance around 0.7055. It is expected that the exchange rate will continue to fluctuate in the range of 0.6715-0.7055 in the next few weeks. On January 3, the Australian dollar suffered a sharp sell-off. The Australian dollar fell more than 4% against the US dollar, at least the biggest decline since June 2016, hitting a 10-year low of 1776. GBP UOB analysts pointed out that overnight pounds fell sharply near the 1.24 integer close support, the early US dollar index (96.2008, -0.0805, -0.08%) fell slightly, the pound rebounded to near the 1.2550 level. The bank analysts said that although the exchange rate rebounded sharply after the low point, but the current risk is still biased downwards, the pound is expected to first test the support near the 1.24 integer, the possibility of further falling below this level is not very high, on the upside, Only effective recovery of 1.2680 can be considered to ease the downward pressure. On January 3, the pound plunged to its lowest level since April 2017, hitting a low of $1.2409 against the dollar and falling to a 16-month low of 0.9102 against the euro; Turkish lira Since the United States announced sanctions against Turkey, Turkey has entered a crisis mode. On August 10th, as Trump announced that it would double the tariff on steel and aluminum imported from Turkey, that is, 50% and 20% respectively, the Turkish lira fell by 20% against the US dollar to 6.87, the largest since 2001. A single day decline. The United States is considering a fine of several billion dollars for the Turkish People's Bank (Halkbank), one of Turkey's largest state-owned banks, on the grounds of helping Iran to evade US sanctions. This blow made the fragile Turkish financial industry worse. Many foreign traders have already said that "after the sanctions imposed by the US economy, the customers said that they could not get the money." "The lira is devalued, and the new customers are finally lost." On the one hand, US sanctions will tighten the US dollar channel, and many Turkish businessmen will not find payment channels. Banks in China will also tighten their collections and need to be reviewed. More importantly, when the sharp and rapid depreciation of the currency will cause the cost of local importers to rise, some Turkish merchants will choose to suspend trade and even suspend payment. According to UBS's latest research on emerging market economies, Turkey's current account deficit accounted for 6.3% of GDP (the highest in the statistical countries), inflation 14.4% (second only to Argentina), and foreign debt accounted for 53% of GDP (higher level) ), the economic health of all emerging economies is poor. With the depreciation of the local currency exchange rate, the pressure to repay foreign currency denominated debts has increased, which has led to a worsening economic outlook, which further reduces investor confidence, so the exchange rate continues to depreciate. Such a vicious circle is common in economic history, such as Malaysia on the eve of the 1997 Asian financial crisis. This state of itself means vulnerability. In addition, because Turkish companies borrow heavily from European banks, if the soil economy is in serious crisis, it may also have similar effects to the Greek debt crisis, putting pressure on the European banking industry. On January 3, the Turkish lira suddenly fell about 4% in short-term, refreshing the low since November 2018. The yen-dollar exchange rate rose more than 4% in a single day. Since December last year, the yen has appreciated by nearly 6% against the US dollar in one month. For the market outlook, analysts are generally optimistic about the short-term appreciation of the yen. JPY UOB analysts said that the USD/JPY fell 400 points in early trading, hitting a low of 104.88. It is expected that the next trend of the exchange rate will be more volatile, and high volatility may take some time to recover. The shock range is 104.50-109.50. In the yen against the US dollar exchange rate soared 400 basis points, all the way jumped 4% (the biggest single-day increase since 2009), in his view, the yen against the US dollar exchange rate rose more than 4% a day, against the yen Arbitrage trading capital is undoubtedly the "disaster". Because the sharp appreciation of the yen will consume an average of 3%-4% of the yen arbitrage trading annual risk-free income, forcing the yen arbitrage trade of more than 100 billion US dollars was forced to leave. Affected by this, the high-yielding currency that was originally favored by the yen arbitrage trading immediately suffered an abnormal drop, which led to the collapse of the foreign exchange market. However, in the eyes of the industry, if the risk aversion is so high that the yen will rise so much, it will trigger a series of domino effects. First, Japan’s exports will face more pressure from the exchange rate, which will cause the Japanese economy to fall into a new dilemma of slow growth. And Japan’s deflationary pressure will continue to increase. Second, the cost of travel to Japan will increase, affecting the enthusiasm of the Chinese people to “buy, buy and buy†before and after the Spring Festival. The yen’s exchange rate has risen continuously over the past two weeks, causing the exchange rate of the yuan against the yen to fall by about 6%. This led to an additional 6% increase in spending by Chinese people to Japan. Third, the financial market began to pay close attention to the specific trend of the Bank of Japan to intervene in the foreign exchange market to suppress the exchange rate of the yen, and is ready to short-sell the yen arbitrage. "If the Bank of Japan can intervene in the foreign exchange market as soon as possible, it may be a good thing for Chinese people to go to Japan for tourism consumption," said a domestic travel agency. This article is posted on this website for the purpose of transmitting more information and does not imply endorsement of its views or confirmation of its description. Article source address: http:// Shoe Cabinet,Shoe Rack Cabinet,Shoe Storage Cabinet,Shoe Organizer Cabinet DUOBUY TECHNOLOGY SHANDONG CO., LTD. , https://www.doubuytech.com