Bamboo Kitchen Paper,Bamboo Kitchen Paper Towel,Bamboo Kitchen Paper Roll,Bamboo Kitchen Roll BODA ENTERPRISE LIMITED , https://www.bodapaper.com
If it is not Fujian Nanzhi (600163.SH)'s attempt to take the lead and turn a profit into profit, if it is not the mania of cotton prices in early 2011, dissolving wood pulp may still be a strange term, and no subsequent companies will pursue enthusiasm and enthusiasm. Input.
In 2010, Fujian Nanzhi made a profit and recorded a net profit of 10.9 million yuan. The company explained that due to the favorable opportunity to make full use of the continuous increase in the price of dissolved wood pulp, the company's dissolving pulp production line has a rapid increase in production capacity, and its selling price has increased and its profitability has been enhanced.
Then on February 24, 2011, Qilu Securities released an industry report that the current decline in global and domestic cotton acreage led to insufficient supply of cotton, prices have risen sharply, and demand for viscose fiber, a substitute for cotton, has grown rapidly. The raw material of viscose fiber - the price of dissolved wood pulp soared rapidly. Zheng Zheng, an analyst at Orient Securities, and Yan Yamei, an analyst at Industrial Securities, also said in an interview with reporters that the high price of cotton brings huge profits to dissolving wood pulp.
Fujian Nanzhi’s brave test attracted the market to follow. At the beginning of March, the relevant person in charge of Chenming Paper (000488.SZ) told reporters that Jilin Chenming and Fuyu Chenming, subsidiaries of the Group, were converting to produce dissolving wood pulp. It is expected that 40,000 tons of production capacity will be added in 2011, which is more than the original production capacity. Doubled. There are many paper industry listed companies such as Sun Paper (002078.SZ), Yueyang Paper (600963.SH) and Qingshan Paper (600103.SH).
However, the cotton price did not rise as high as expected. At the craziest time of March 2011, the highest price for cotton was 31,000 yuan per ton, but it recently dropped to 24,000 yuan per ton. The "V" type fluctuation made cotton spinning companies and farmers unprepared. At the "2011 Cotton Workshop," industry experts said that the international and domestic cotton market will experience huge fluctuations in 2010-11.
The drop in cotton prices will end the era of dissolving wood pulp profits. What is puzzling is that the soaring cotton price is not the secret of the industry. How long will it be for the new concept of dissolving wood pulp brought to the papermaking industry to justify the reason why “a bullish cotton price all the way� Each company in the industry follows closely. In the end, what is the profit in the short term?
The temptation of dissolving wood pulp
The forerunner of the market is Fujian Nanzhi. As an old papermaking company with newsprint and cultural paper as its mainstay, Fujian Nanzhi was trapped in the current situation in which the newsprint industry faced overcapacity and sluggish demand. Yan Yamei analyzed that due to the sluggish trend of newsprint in the past two years, the performance of the company is not optimistic.
In 2010, Fujian Nanzhi turned a profit. The annual report shows that Fujian Nanzhi achieved an operating income of 2.264 billion yuan in 2010, an increase of 83% year-on-year. The income from dissolving wood pulp realized 404 million yuan, and the revenue contribution was nearly 18%. According to a person from the Fujian Southern Paper Securities Department, the profitability of dissolving wood pulp in 2010 was as high as 27%, while the profit margins of the company's two main business newsprints and high-end cultural papers were only -6.79% and -0.29%.
“The newly added dissolving wood pulp business has become a highlight of the company, which may help the company get out of trouble. In the future, the company will use dissolving wood pulp as a strategic focus, and it is optimistic about the prospects.†Yan Yamei said in a research report in February.
Subsequently, a number of brokerages issued in-depth reports, revealing the mysteries of dissolving wood pulp profits. Take Qilu Securities's industry report "Dissolving pulp: Unlocking the key to profitability in the industry" as an example. The report analyzes that the current decline in global and domestic cotton acreage has led to insufficient supply of cotton and a sharp increase in prices, which has led to a decline in the supply of cotton linters (cotton linters, which are raw materials for textiles and clothing). Alternatives to cotton linters – the demand for viscose fibers (α-cellulose extracted from cellulosic raw materials such as wood and plant stalks, or cotton linters as raw materials) has grown rapidly, making raw materials for viscose fibers - The price of dissolved wood pulp soared rapidly. According to the report, in 2011 China's shortfall was about 1.84 million tons of dissolving wood pulp, but close to 1 million tons of these gaps will be made up through imports, and both are high-end products that are difficult to replace in the short term. The report analyzes that if the price of cotton pulp drastically decreases, the price of cotton pulp (a high-purity cellulose made from cotton linter as raw material and refined by alkaline cooking and rinsing) will drop to a certain extent, dissolving wood pulp will be short for cotton. The substitution effect of cashmere and cotton pulp will also be greatly reduced.
In March, there were more than a dozen reports on the profitability of dissolving wood pulp, setting off a wave of “dissolving wood pulp†in the papermaking industry.
On April 22nd, Qingshan Paper Co., Ltd., an affiliate of Fujian Nanzhi Paper Co., Ltd., hit a daily limit of 87.04 million shares. Fujian Nanzhi also closed at a daily limit, with a total volume of 97.07 million shares throughout the day.
Zhu Jia, an analyst at CITIC Securities, told reporters on the same day that there were expectations for dissolving wood pulp production capacity among Qing Shang Paper and Fujian Nan Paper daily limit factors.
Fujian Textiles Holdings is a wholly-owned subsidiary of the Fujian State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission. It owns 4.81% and 2.71% stake in Qingshan Paper through its wholly-owned subsidiaries Fujian Salt Industry Co., Ltd. and Fujian Jinhuang Trading Co., Ltd., while Fujian Nanzhi holds Qingshan Paper. There are 49 million shares in the industry, accounting for 4.61% of its total share capital.
Analyst Wang Feng of Guotai Junan told reporters at the time that the net profit of the general chemical pulp industry of the paper industry was less than RMB 1,000/ton, while the net profit of dissolving wood pulp was about RMB 5,000/ton, which was more than five times the net profit of chemical pulp.
Not wait for the trend of cotton prices is clear, the domestic paper giants enthusiastically converted. Chenming Paper said that in order to seize the high profit opportunity brought by the current soaring price of dissolved wood pulp, two wood pulp production lines of Jilin Chenming and Fuyu Chenming, subsidiaries of the Group, have begun technological transformation and production. Dissolve wood pulp. It is expected that the production capacity will increase by 40,000 tons in 2011, which will double the original production capacity.
Sun Paper Securities officials said that the company's 300,000-ton pulp production line has also begun a technical transformation and production of dissolving wood pulp. It is expected that the technical transformation will be completed in early October and the dissolving pulp production capacity will be 200,000 tons. Sun Paper subsequently announced that it will invest 1.5 billion yuan to set up Guangxi Sun Fiber Co., Ltd., a wholly-owned subsidiary in Fangchenggang City, Guangxi, to build an annual output of 98,000 tons of pulp (dissolving wood pulp) and viscose staple fiber integration project. The construction period is 20 months. By 2012, the company's dissolving pulp production capacity will be nearly 300,000 tons. Shenyin Wanguo issued a report that Sun Paper is involved in the business of wood pulp (dissolving wood pulp) and is expected to obtain short-term excess profits.
The forerunner Fujian Nanzhi also stated that it will make full use of the advantages of forest and bamboo resources in Fujian Province, and through technological transformation, expand bamboo (wood) dissolving pulp projects, enhance the company's competitiveness and profitability, and reverse the main losses as soon as possible. In 2011, about 600 million yuan was invested in the construction of a joint venture subsidiary to produce dissolving pulp. Take full advantage of the bamboo and wood resources around Nanping, and through technical transformation, build a bamboo dissolving wood pulp project with an annual output of 96,000 tons.
Yueyang Paper's wood pulp production line is expected to be completed in early 2012, and it will convert 300,000 tons of dissolving wood pulp. Qingshan Paper expects to release 96,000 tons of new wood pulp capacity in the third quarter of 2011, with an investment of about 80 million yuan.
It is difficult to continue profits
It is not difficult to find that the “long-term bullish cotton price†is the key logic for dissolving wood pulp instead of cotton linters and cotton pulp, and even brokerages have stated that the price of cotton is the only deciding factor that affects dissolving pulp profits. Zhou Yinchen, an analyst at Shenyin Wanguo, believes that the break-even point for dissolving wood pulp is 15,000 yuan/ton for cotton pulp (corresponding to a cotton price of 24,000 yuan/ton).
To the surprise of the market, the cotton price in 2011 has shown great fluctuations. In March, the highest offer price of cotton was 31,000 yuan per ton, and by June it had dropped to 24,000 yuan per ton. This has broken the hypothetical logic of securities companies: When the cotton price is higher than the average of 24,000 yuan per ton, dissolved wood Pulp replacement effect is significant.
Du Fu, director of the Rural Economic Research Center of the Ministry of Agriculture, told reporters that the decisive factor for cotton prices is supply and demand, and it is not possible to simply analyze changes in planting area and yield. “This year, the country’s cotton planting area has increased by 4%. The United States and India are both growing. From the supply side, it is a steady growth trend, but the demand side is still uncertain.â€
For the volatility of the cotton market, she said that the current price of 24,000 to 25,000 yuan per ton is still at a high price point. “The emergence of such fluctuations is a rational return of prices. In the financial crisis in 2008, the textile consumption situation was good, but affected by the entire economic environment, the demand side was suppressed. In 2009, the retaliatory rebound in cotton prices was a kind of compensation. Sexuality has skyrocketed, but it is not the normal state of the market."
Zhang Hongzhou, general manager of the Galaxy Futures Cotton Industry Department, also stated that, excluding supply and demand factors, cotton prices are also affected by seasonal factors. “Each year is divided into three time periods. During the Spring Festival period, the cotton price is relatively high. From June to July, cotton is just under the next stage. It is possible to predict the cotton planting area and see if the consumption supply is sufficient. From September to October, it is the new cotton The price will not be very high."
Du Fu also told reporters that the weather has a great impact on cotton prices, but the weather is the most difficult factor to accurately predict. “Now we cannot simply judge whether the price of cotton will rise or fall in the future. After all, the weather has changed so much.â€
On the other hand, the starting point of brokerage analysts, only from the decline in global cotton acreage, thus deducing the long-term bullish cotton prices, and then deduced the viscose fiber raw materials, cotton substitutes - the long-term existence of profitable dissolved wood pulp, Slightly thin logic has set off a frenzy of paper industry concepts.
As the Fujian Nanshen Controlling Shareholders intend to use the “Fujian Nanzhi†shares as their capital contribution, they will introduce strategic investors through the open market through state-owned asset supervision procedures to raise funds for bamboo fiber construction projects. The company’s shares have been on April 25, 2011. Stop and stop. Affected by this good news, on April 22nd, Fujian Nan Paper and its affiliates Qingshan Paper both reached a daily limit.
Fujian Nanzhi announced on May 16 that its controlling shareholder Fujian Textiles (Holdings) Co., Ltd. plans to introduce strategic investors through the open market and terminate the major asset reorganization plan for the construction of bamboo fiber projects. Analysts said that this strategic investor’s plan for dissolving the profitability outlook of wood pulp has led to the failure of a strategic cooperation plan.
As for the decline in the price of cotton, a person from Fujian Nanzhi Securities said that the dissolving wood pulp is still profitable and the project construction continues. “We are still optimistic about the prospects for the dissolving wood pulp project, but it is true that the profitability of dissolving wood pulp is no longer in existence.†The person admits.
The Sun Paper Securities Department, who is the most put into production, said that the current decline in cotton prices is normal for agricultural product price fluctuations. In the long run, the prices of agricultural products are bullish, and therefore they are still optimistic about dissolving pulp projects.
"In any case, the conversion of dissolving wood pulp into low production, if you are at risk, we will change to the production of chemical pulp, temporarily no other fundamental measures." Chenming Paper Securities Department said.
According to industry insiders, the cost of technological reforms implemented by the conversion of dissolving wood pulp from the chemical pulp projects of various paper companies varied from tens of millions to hundreds of millions of yuan.
The cost of Chenming Paper's conversion of dissolving wood pulp is around RMB 100 million, which is relatively small compared to the investment of its 700,000-ton chemical pulp project in Zhanjiang.
However, paper companies investing in new dissolving pulp projects invest a lot of money. The investment of Guangxi Sun Fiber Company of Sun Paper is RMB 1.5 billion, and the investment amount of dissolving pulp produced by a joint venture subsidiary set up by Fujian Nan Paper is RMB 600 million.
Dissolving wood pulp in the paper industry
The high price of cotton brings huge profits to dissolving wood pulp. Major paper-making companies have swarmed. Nowadays, the price of cotton has risen steadily. What will be the major papermaking companies?