[Summary of research report of light industry manufacturing industry]

The growth rate of fixed assets investment in the paper industry reached 21.71% this month, maintaining a high level of operation; the international market price of pulp continued to fall this month, while the domestic market rebounded due to the decrease in domestic pulp spot market inventory; the price of paper continued to fall with the price of pulp this month. To curb the profitability of paper companies.

We maintain the “Neutral” rating of the paper industry: the high level of fixed asset investment will make the industry supply and demand imbalance will exist for a long time. The new capacity will increase in the second half of the year, while the downstream demand will recover slowly. Both the price of pulp and paper will be difficult to change in the short term. It is difficult to improve the profitability of the industry. It is recommended to focus on the paper industry that is rigid in demand and relatively stable in growth, and the leading company Sun Paper in the industry with excellent management and execution capabilities.

The price of packaging paper continued to fall this month, but the price of crude oil rebounded this month, causing the price of major plastics to rebound slightly this month. The economic downturn also affected cigarette consumption to a certain extent, and the cumulative growth rate of cigarette production also declined slightly.

We maintain the “Neutral” rating of the packaging industry: Although the anti-cyclical industries such as food, beverages, and daily necessities have rigid demand characteristics, the demand for packaging has risen steadily, but the cumulative growth rate of traditional electrical appliances such as refrigerators and air conditioners continues to decline, and more Negative growth. Affected by the slowdown in macroeconomic growth, the growth rate of demand in the entire packaging industry has continued to slow down. The improvement of industry performance in the future depends on the improvement of economic conditions, while the probability of a sharp improvement in the macro economy in the short term is relatively small. It is recommended to focus on Shanghai Green New in the vacuum aluminized paper industry.

The cumulative value of furniture exports increased by 28.1% this month. The sales of new homes in the United States and the sales situation of existing homes are also very good. Recently, the transaction volume of residential areas has been picking up, the decline in the growth rate of real estate sales has narrowed, and the price of residential transactions has started to rise for two consecutive months in June.

We maintain the “overweight” rating of the furniture industry: Strict real estate regulation and control policies have led to a rapid decline in the growth rate of commercial housing sales in China, which has brought heavy losses to the furniture industry. However, the continuous interest rate hikes and the fine-tuning of the property market policies have prompted the immediate purchase of real estate. The decline in sales growth was narrowing. We believe that the current regulatory policies have curbed the demand for speculative investment to a certain extent, and the state will not increase regulation and control. In addition, the continuous increase in the growth rate of furniture exports has also greatly improved the industry's economic recovery. We are optimistic about the custom wardrobe leader Sofia and the Yihua wood industry with outstanding domestic sales.

Risk warnings: (1) Continued economic downturn weakens downstream demand (2) A large number of new capacity increases paper supply and demand further deterioration (3) Tobacco control severity exceeds expectations (4) Real estate sales have fallen sharply. (Huatai Securities)

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