Changxing Mingwang Rubber & Plastic Technologies Co.,Ltd. , https://www.cxmingwang.com
Investment strategy of the building materials industry in 2013: supply and demand gradually improved, grasping the profit turning point
Infrastructure and urbanization stimulate cement demand, and supply and demand relationship gradually improves
We expect cement demand to reach 2.368 billion tons, up 8.03%, driven by infrastructure recovery and urbanization in 2013. The annual new clinker production capacity is about 109 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate is 2 percentage points higher than that in 2012. The relationship between supply and demand has gradually improved.
In the second quarter, the industry's profit growth rate gradually turned positive, and East China, Central South and Southwest China were highly flexible.
We expect the cement industry's profit to increase by 24% in 2013. In the first quarter, due to the high base in the same period of 2012, it continued to experience negative growth. In the second quarter, the profit growth rate gradually turned positive. However, due to regional differences: the profitability of the Northeast region will remain high, and the East China and Central South regions are expected to enhance profitability through synergy. The Southwest region is expected to improve profitability through the increase in concentration. The North China region still needs to observe the recovery of demand. There is a downside risk.
The cement industry maintains "cautious recommendation"
Cement stocks have shown signs of differentiation. In the past year, companies with better regional patterns and good management capabilities have outperformed other cement companies. In 2013, we propose to grasp the two main investment lines: the trend investment opportunities brought by enterprises in East China and Southwest China with profit rebound and high performance elasticity, focusing on: Conch Cement, Huaxin Cement, Jiangxi Cement, Chaodong Shares; The trading opportunities of the western cement stocks brought by the investment policy are focused on: Qilian Mountain and Jidong Cement.
The glass industry maintains "neutral"
The recovery of flat glass demand still needs to wait; the proportion of production stoppage is basically at a historical low level, and there is little room for improvement in future supply. The profitability of flat glass basically bottoms out, and the downside risk of future prices is not large, but the upside is limited. Deep-processed glass has been improving for a long time, and there is pressure in the short term. In the short-term, we can pay attention to the floating rebound glass enterprises, such as Qibin Group, Jinjing Technology, and CSG A, but the long-term trend investment opportunities still need to wait for the substantial improvement of supply and demand.
Urbanization drives the development of new building materials
Urbanization is a huge engine for future economic development. In the future urbanization road, the demand for improved and green building materials will gradually expand. Therefore, we recommend: Beixin Building Materials, which has continuous expansion of gypsum board production capacity, stable profit growth, and low valuation; the space board industry that has gradually penetrated into the civilian market and has great growth potential; capacity expansion, channel sinking, and profitability gradually improved. Oriental Yuhong and so on.