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Building materials industry weekly report: cement prices continue to fall, is expected to decline in the first quarter of 13 years
The average price of the national cement market this week fell by 0.55% from last week. The price of East China Cement continued to fall. Cement prices in some areas of Zhejiang and Fujian continued to fall by RMB 10-20/ton. Affected by the drop in cement prices in the surrounding areas of Shanghai and Zhejiang, the market price in Nanjing also has a downward trend. However, through consultations with major leading companies, efforts will be made to stabilize cement prices by the end of December. On the one hand, the current price of Nanjing cement market is not high compared with the surrounding areas. On the other hand, the time from New Year's Day and Spring Festival is shorter, and the price drop is likely to cause Continue to go down. However, the price of clinker in the region has been lowered twice in a row, with a cumulative decline of 30-40 yuan / ton, the original high price of 270-280 yuan / ton, now 230-250 yuan / ton. The prices of cement and clinker in the Suxichang area in southern Jiangsu remained stable, and the company continued to stop production. Jiangxi cement prices are stable, clinker prices fall 10-20 yuan / ton.
Central and South China prices have fallen. Hubei Wuhan and Edong cement prices fell 20-30 yuan / ton, the reason: Chongqing low-cost cement and clinker into the increase, the Yangtze River Delta prices and the company's impulse at the end of the year. This week, the price of cement in the Pearl River Delta in Guangdong remained stable compared with last week. The price of clinker in the company has been lowered by 20-25 yuan/ton. The price of clinker has been lowered three times, and the high price will be affected in the later stage.
Prices in other regions remained stable.
The price of East China Cement began to fall, and the price decline in the first quarter of 2013 is expected to be limited. The prices of cement in Zhejiang and Fujian and the prices of clinker in Jiangsu and Jiangxi have declined, mainly due to the fact that at the end of the year, the momentum of enterprises has a large momentum; the production line has resumed production in the early stage; there is a certain downward adjustment in the relatively high price. Judging from the recent market situation, if the leading companies do not take measures, the follow-up prices may still fall. At present, in order to prevent clinker prices from falling back to the lowest point, Nanjing and surrounding cement companies in the early Spring Festival have a shutdown plan, estimated to be 30-35 days. Enterprises in the Suzhou, Wuxi and Changzhou regions continued to stop production. Jiangxi also has a plan to suspend production. The possibility of a sharp drop in prices is small, or there may be small fluctuations. However, the cement price in Jiangxi Province is higher than the surrounding area, and the low-cost cement back pressure is not excluded. At that time, the cement price may fluctuate slightly. Under the effect of stoppage plans of local enterprises, we expect that the decline in cement prices in the first quarter of 2013 will be more limited.
The long-term upward trend of cement stocks still needs to improve the relationship between supply and demand.
In the past period, the cement index fell by 0.75%, while the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.25%. We believe that the current rise in cement stocks is mainly due to the expected warming; as the cement price increase in the fourth quarter is coming to an end, the rebound of cement stocks will mainly depend on the recent policy stimulus factors; the future trend of cement stocks will still require industry supply and demand. Improve to support. If the previous government announced a series of favorable cement demand policies can be implemented, cement demand is expected to pick up early next year, industry earnings are expected to improve, and gradually lead to a trend of cement stocks. Best recommendation: East China, Central South Regional Corporation with better regional cooperation and greater performance elasticity, Conch Cement, Jiangxi Cement, Chaodong Shares, Huaxin Cement; the demand for infrastructure is relatively large, and the cement company with stimulus policies will bring trading opportunities. , Qilian Mountain, Jidong Cement, Tianshan Shares, Qingsong Jianhua.